When Shelves Go Empty, What Happens to Tariffs?
Tariffs are a real-world stress test on American patience and the coalition Trump is counting on for a second term.
The past few months have revealed a sharp divide among conservatives over tariffs. On one side, MAGA loyalists insist that President Trump is playing four-dimensional chess—a master negotiator who puts America First and creates a new economic ecosystem. Conversely, traditional conservatives warn that tariffs are fundamentally at odds with free markets and American prosperity. Financial markets seem to agree with the skeptics, sliding sharply when new tariffs are announced and recovering (somewhat) when negotiations are ongoing.
The Trump administration's apparent assumption was simple: threaten harsh tariffs, and trading partners would rush to make a deal. The Art of the Deal, right? It hasn't played out that way. Instead, countries have dug in.
In Canada, Trump's tactics sparked a surge of patriotism — and with it, a strong undercurrent of anti-Americanism. Politically, Canada just elected the least MAGA candidate it could find, a former Central banker and Davos habitué. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims talks with China are ongoing; China denies it.[i]
Unsurprisingly, The Wall Street Journal criticizes Trump's trade moves, but when National Review joins in — and with more bite — it's worth paying attention to.
Andrew Stuttaford warns, "One of the defining memories of the Carter presidency is of lines at the gas station. Could one equivalent for the second Trump term be shortages at the store? The way things are going, quite possibly."[ii]
Dominic Pino goes even further: "Why should other countries want to make trade deals with the U.S. when Trump just demonstrated that the U.S. won't keep its word, even on deals that Trump himself signed during his first term?"[iii]
Naturally, the MAGA response is predictable. Don Jr. and others can dismiss these criticisms as RINO whining, the complaint of those who never fully embraced Trump's vision. Yet, maintaining open global trade has been a long-time core principle for pro-business conservatives.
However, this isn't simply some theoretical argument about economic policy. The CEOs of Walmart and Target are warning that store shelves could be empty in weeks unless trade policy changes soon.[iv] The CEOs said in a private meeting that U.S. tariffs could mean "massive product shortages and price spikes."[v] Barron’s reports that, according to logistics data platform Vizion, ocean container bookings from China to the U.S. fell 64% in the first week of April compared with the earlier week. [vi] “Overall imports to the U.S. also fell 64%. Categories with the most dramatic drops included imports of apparel, fabrics and other textiles.”[vii]
So, here's the problem: Americans don't do shortages. We don't need to resurrect the memory of Jimmy Carter's gas lines to be reminded of this. Just think back to COVID-19: a rumor of a toilet paper shortage sent millions into panic-buying, creating an actual shortage overnight. Scarcity isn't something American consumers tolerate. And unlike 2020, there may be a real reason to "stock up." Much of our toilet paper is imported from Canada, so stocking up avoids tariff price increases.[viii]
Shop Amazon, we don't just expect delivery from the next day; this afternoon would be much better. As for "out-of-stock," we do not expect to see that. We stockpile. We complain. We demand action. Tell us the limit is three per customer, and we'll try to buy four.
And it's not just about consumer goods. Cut off one or two lanes of the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor — the busiest trade crossing between the U.S. and Canada, or at the San Ysidro Port of Entry with Mexico at San Diego — and "just-in-time" manufacturing grinds to a halt. Add tariff costs to parts shuttling back and forth across the border, and cars get a lot more expensive. Close a few factories for lack of supplies, and once-solid red states like Ohio start looking more purple.
Under even the rosiest scenarios, replacing remote sources with onshore American production is years away. Similarly, reconfiguring supply chains to support new production will also take time.
In the meantime, tariffs aren't just an academic economic debate. They're a real-world stress test on American patience and the coalition Trump is counting on for a second term.
[i] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-waives-tariffs-some-us-goods-denies-trumps-claim-that-talks-are-underway-2025-04-25/
[ii] https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/tariffs-empty-shelves-of-the-golden-age/
[iii] https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-trumps-trade-ideas-cant-work/
[iv] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/walmart-target-trump-tariff-supply-chains/
[v] https://www.wsj.com/opinion/francois-mitterrand-donald-trump-tariffs-trade-economy-markets-7e80c7e9?mod=editorials_article_pos9
[vi] https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/tariff-shockwave-us-import-bookings-collapse-after-q1-surge
[vii] https://www.barrons.com/articles/tariffs-shortages-china-shipping-c159487f
[viii] https://financialpost.com/commodities/lumber-tariffs-risk-toilet-paper-supply